I say a lot of things and make a lot of predictions. We all do. But how many of these utterances are actually true? I started paying attention to the things I said, and later investigated whether they were accurate or not. If I found myself quoting a statistic from memory, I would Google it. If I remembered a person attending an event, I would go back and check my pictures. It turns out that I was wrong, often. I approximated my failure rate at 22%, or roughly a fifth of my statements. I’m probably wrong about that, too, because I didn’t conduct my research project very scientifically.
In his book, Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman identified overconfidence as the king of human cognitive biases, and that’s really saying something, because there are a lot of major human cognitive biases. But how many times have you been certain that you remember something correctly, and upon further reflection or research, you realize you were wrong? Our overconfidence can get us into a lot of trouble, like taking on excessive risk with our behaviors, or distancing ourselves from loved ones because we can’t see the errors in our ways.
How can we reduce the number of inaccurate things coming out of our mouths? You can employ one simple tool that will immediately improve the veracity of your statements, without gathering any more data. Just speak more precisely about what you do know. If you know that 45% of Ferraris are delivered in red because you just finished a biography of Enzo Ferrari, then say that. But if you read a supercar article years ago and you vaguely remember that roughly half of Ferraris at that time were red, then say just that, with a qualification that you can’t be sure you remember the statistic correctly and that it may no longer be true.
In casual conversation then it might not matter if you make mistakes or confuse your facts, but I think it’s generally a good idea to maintain a reputation for making accurate statements and using the appropriate level of confidence to make assertions based on some kind of efficient evaluation of how likely you are to be wrong.
And if you really don’t know what you’re talking about, heed philosopher Ludwid Wittgenstein’s advice from the “Tractacus,” “Where of one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent.” Know when to shut up.
How often do you think you’re wrong? Start to notice.